This modest acceleration makes the region one of only two globally, alongside the Middle East and North Africa, expected to see growth strengthen this year, according to the Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report.
However, the Bank cautions that this forecast “assumes the external environment does not deteriorate further, inflation declines as expected, and regional conflicts subside.”
Despite the improvement, the projected growth remains below the region’s long-term average and is “insufficient to make substantial progress in reducing extreme poverty.”
Global Growth Outlook Weakens Amid Trade Tensions
The World Bank also lowered growth forecasts for nearly 70% of all economies worldwide, citing “heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty.”
Global growth is projected to slow to 2.3% in 2025—the weakest pace in 17 years and nearly half a percentage point lower than projections made at the start of the year.
While the bank does not anticipate a global recession, it warns that if current forecasts hold, “average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s.”
Regional Growth Projections and Risks
Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is forecast to rise to an average of 4.2% in 2026-27, provided global conditions remain stable.
The Middle East and North Africa are expected to see growth accelerate to 2.7% in 2025 and further to 4.1% by 2027, largely due to expanding oil production offsetting lower prices and trade constraints.
The bank notes, “Growth forecasts have been revised downward by 0.4 percentage points for 2025 and 0.2 percentage points for 2026,” reflecting the impact of rising trade barriers, policy uncertainty, and weaker global commodity demand.
Challenges Facing Sub-Saharan Africa
Despite the relatively positive outlook, sub-Saharan Africa faces significant risks. These include:
- Slower-than-expected global growth due to trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
- A potential economic slowdown in China could have ripple effects worldwide.
- Regional conflicts, such as the war in Sudan, may increase prices in neighbouring countries.
- Adverse weather conditions exacerbate poverty and food insecurity.
The World Bank underscores that “the outlook for sub-Saharan Africa is also affected by global spillovers from these shocks, primarily through lower global commodity demand.”